Oceans & Ice · deep dive

Rising seas, vanishing ice

A warmer planet melts ice and expands the water already in the sea. The oceans creep up every coastline on Earth while the Arctic’s summer ice — a white mirror that once reflected sunlight back to space — disappears.

Back to the overview

Bottom line: Global mean sea level is 227 mm as of 2019, up 850% from -30 mm in 1880. Tracked here with 7 related indicators: Ocean heat content (0–700 m), Sea surface temperature, Arctic sea ice (September), Antarctic sea ice (minimum), Greenland ice sheet mass, Antarctica ice sheet mass, Ocean acidification (surface pH).

Global mean sea level

The oceans have risen ~25 cm since 1880 — and the rate is accelerating.

227mm

latest · 2019

Dashed: projected to 225 mm by 2024 if the recent trend holds (not a forecast).

Ocean heat content (0–700 m)

The ocean has absorbed over 90% of global warming — and it is still heating.

22.8×10²² J

latest · 2025

Dashed: projected to 26.4 ×10²² J by 2030 if the recent trend holds (not a forecast).

1955

-3.2 ×10²² J

change since

+814%

Sea surface temperature

The ocean’s surface is running hotter than at any point in the instrumental record.

1.09°C

latest · 2026

Dashed: projected to 1.22 °C by 2031 if the recent trend holds (not a forecast).

Arctic sea ice (September)

The Arctic has lost roughly 40% of its summer ice cover since 1979.

4.75M km²

latest · 2025

Dashed: projected to 4.34 M km² by 2030 if the recent trend holds (not a forecast).

Antarctic sea ice (minimum)

Antarctic summer sea ice fell off a cliff in 2023 — to the lowest on record.

2.91M km²

latest · 2026

Dashed: projected to 1.91 M km² by 2031 if the recent trend holds (not a forecast).

Greenland ice sheet mass

Greenland has shed nearly 5,000 billion tonnes of ice into the sea since 2002.

-4899Gt

latest · 2020

Dashed: projected to -6174 Gt by 2025 if the recent trend holds (not a forecast).

Antarctica ice sheet mass

Antarctica is losing ice too — about 2,700 billion tonnes gone since 2002.

-2746Gt

latest · 2020

Dashed: projected to -3461 Gt by 2025 if the recent trend holds (not a forecast).

Ocean acidification (surface pH)

As the sea absorbs our CO₂ it turns acidic — dissolving the shells of life itself.

8.04pH

latest · 2024

Dashed: projected to 8.03 pH by 2029 if the recent trend holds (not a forecast).

How we know · methodology

Global mean sea level here is the Church & White (CSIRO) tide-gauge reconstruction, anchored near zero around 1900. It is a reconstruction, not a single instrument, so early decades carry wider uncertainty; satellite altimetry since 1993 shows the rise has accelerated. This series is seed-only — no faithful public live feed is wired yet.

Ocean heat content is NOAA NCEI’s estimate (Levitus et al.) of the heat stored in the upper 700 m of the ocean, in units of 10²² joules relative to the 1955–2006 mean — the clearest single measure of global warming, since the ocean absorbs over 90% of the excess heat. The numbers are abstract but the trend is not: it has climbed from roughly −3 to +23 since 1955.

Sea surface temperature is the Met Office Hadley Centre’s HadSST anomaly — the temperature of the ocean SKIN, vs the 1961–1990 mean. It is a different thing from the heat content above (surface vs the whole upper ocean) and from the land+ocean global anomaly on the Climate page; here it isolates the surface, now warmer (~+1.1 °C) than at any point in the instrumental record. The current year is preliminary.

Arctic sea ice is the September monthly-mean extent from the NSIDC Sea Ice Index (passive-microwave satellites, continuous since 1979). September is the annual minimum — the clearest measure of how much multi-year ice survives the melt season. (This is floating SEA ice; melting it does not itself raise sea level.)

Antarctic sea ice is the annual MINIMUM (February) extent from the same NSIDC record (via OWID). For decades it drifted sideways or even grew slightly, confounding expectations — until 2023, when the summer minimum collapsed to the lowest in the satellite era and has stayed near those lows since. Like the Arctic, this is floating sea ice; its loss removes a bright, reflective surface and exposes dark, heat-absorbing ocean.

The Greenland and Antarctica ice-sheet masses are from NASA’s GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites (via OWID), which weigh the ice by sensing its gravity. We show the cumulative change in gigatonnes since 2002 — about −4,900 Gt for Greenland and −2,700 Gt for Antarctica by 2020. Unlike sea ice, this is LAND ice: every tonne that melts adds directly to sea-level rise, and Antarctica holds by far the most.

Ocean pH is surface seawater measured at Station ALOHA in the North Pacific (Hawaii Ocean Time-series, via OWID) — one of the longest open-ocean chemistry records. As the sea absorbs CO₂ it forms carbonic acid; pH has fallen from ~8.11 to ~8.04 since the late 1980s (a pH scale is logarithmic, so that is a ~18% rise in acidity). It is one station, not a global mean, but it tracks the basin-wide trend closely.

All of these are downstream of emissions — warming for sea level and ice, dissolved CO₂ for acidity — so the actions that bend them are the same ones that bend the climate curves.

What bends this curve

Despair changes nothing; choices do. These habits measurably move the trend above — start with one, and ask the Earth guide how far it goes.

Moderate

Eat less red meat

Food is ~26% of global emissions, and beef is the single most carbon-intensive food. Shifting to a plant-rich diet can cut your food footprint by up to ~50%.

Committed

Fly less, and offset what you must

One round-trip transatlantic flight emits ~1.6 t CO₂ per passenger — about a year of a low-carbon lifestyle. Swapping one flight for rail or a call is one of the biggest single cuts you can make.

Easy

Switch to a green electricity tariff

Electricity and heat are the largest emitting sector. Moving your home to certified renewables can cut household power emissions to near zero overnight.

Easy

Waste less food

Roughly a third of all food is wasted; if it were a country it would be the 3rd-largest emitter. Planning meals and using leftovers cuts both your bin and your footprint.

Committed

Drive electric — or don’t drive

Transport is ~16% of emissions. Walking, cycling or an EV for short trips cuts both CO₂ and the PM2.5 that pollutes the air we breathe.