Right now · El Niño 2026–27
Who said what, and when
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation, as monitored by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the WMO.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center · ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
NOAA Climate Prediction Center: “El Niño Advisory”
Issued 13 August 2026
“Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue.” — NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s own definition of that label
“El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. … During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value). With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed.”
“El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. … If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began - so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.”
- +1.36 °CJJA 2026Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)CPC RONI, ERSSTv6, 1991–2020 base periodSite comparison within the same CPC file: 2nd highest JJA value in the CPC file (77 seasons since 1950)Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center · as of JJA 2026
- +1.80 °CJJA 2026Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)CPC ONI, ERSSTv6, centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 yearsSite comparison within the same CPC file: highest JJA value in the CPC file (77 seasons since 1950)Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center · as of JJA 2026
Thresholds quoted, not applied
Next scheduled NOAA Climate Prediction Center update: 10 September 2026
Read the issue (archived) ↗Current page at NOAA Climate Prediction Center ↗
Not a forecast, not a ranking by this site: every label and probability above is quoted from the named issuer.
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Timeline
One entry per issuance, newest first. Entries are never edited or back-filled: a correction is a new entry that supersedes the one it names, and a scheduled update that has not arrived is recorded as its own entry.
- 3 September 2026World Meteorological Organization · El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026), Secretary-General statementissuance
“El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. … If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began - so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.”Show the full quotation ↓Show less ↑
- 13 August 2026NOAA Climate Prediction Center · ENSO Diagnostic Discussionissuance
“El Niño Advisory”
“El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. … During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value). With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed.”Show the full quotation ↓Show less ↑
Observed
RONI and ONI, °C — CPC files, shown as published
| Season | RONI (°C) | ONI (°C) |
|---|---|---|
| JJA 2026 | +1.36 | +1.80 |
| MJJ 2026 | +0.97 | +1.39 |
| AMJ 2026 | +0.49 | +0.95 |
| MAM 2026 | −0.04 | +0.46 |
| FMA 2026 | −0.44 | +0.11 |
| JFM 2026 | −0.76 | −0.21 |
| DJF 2026 | −0.91 | −0.39 |
| NDJ 2025 | −1.04 | −0.60 |
| OND 2025 | −0.98 | −0.61 |
| SON 2025 | −0.93 | −0.57 |
| ASO 2025 | −0.78 | −0.43 |
| JAS 2025 | −0.59 | −0.26 |
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center — CPC RONI, ERSSTv6, 1991–2020 base period · as of JJA 2026Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center — CPC ONI, ERSSTv6, centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years · as of JJA 2026
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